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"He'll have a good year," they said. "He's completed his first pre-season in five years," they said. "He's going to play in the midfield," they said.
Nothing breeds hope with greater fertility than an AFL pre-season.
The sun in shining, every club has the same amount of premiership points, is having the best pre-season on record and there isn't a coach fighting for his job.
THE BAROMETER: ROUND 5 UPDATE
FOOTY'S MOST REVERED NUMBERS
Every player is tanned, tattooed, muscled-up and embarking on a breakout year.
But, after the first month of the season proper we can see the forest from the trees.
The pre-season flyers have fallen in a heap, Round 1 debutantes have served their purpose and a positional change has done nothing for some.
Four games of football has provided SuperCoaches with sufficient exposed form to pull the trigger on dwindling stock.
While conserving trades is important, it's just as crucial to admit fault and cut your losses as breakeven prices begin to soar.
Let's face it, predicting a player is going to have a good season for their club and a good season for your SuperCoach team is two different things.
SAM LLOYD'S FORM HARD TO IGNORE
MACCA'S WEEK IN SPORT
The pre-season is a like the dance floor in a dinghy nightclub — when the lights come on at 6am, things are not always as they seemed.
So if you were humming "I bet that you look good on the dance floor" in February, Round 5 signifies the time to put spotlight onto your team.
It's best to remember that when the Arctic Monkeys sing those lyrics they issue the following disclaimer — "Don't believe the hype".
Captain courageous Joel Selwood directs his SuperCoaches to the promised land. Picture: Ludbey Wayne Source: News Corp Australia
CAPTAIN'S CORNER
Gary Ablett $716,200 MID
Despite Nathan Jones' superb tagging performance on Marc Murphy last week, Jordie McKenzie is likely to go to Ablett. The last time the two sides met — Round 20 last year — McKenzie kept Ablett to just 19 disposals and a paltry 67 SuperCoach points. However, scrutiny on taggers is likely to be intense after Brent Macaffer's job on Trent Cotchin, so McKenzie's ability to hold and scrag won't be as effective. Status quo.
Scott Pendlebury $695,300 MID
Pendlebury shrugged off soreness to score 129 points against the Tigers. Matt Thomas did his best to keep up with the classy on-baller, but he couldn't go with Pendlebury in transition. Pendlebury completed a full week of training and enters Saturday's clash with North Melbourne with history on his side, having scored 157 and 160 against the Kangas last year.
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Aaron Sandilands $443,100 RUC
After two bumper first rounds the big man's suitability for the captain's armband is starting to dive. His Round 1 score of 117 was boosted by 19 disposals and his 158 in Round 2 was complimented by six tackles and a whopping 58 hit-outs. Sandilands scored just 82 in the smashing of Essendon last week against a makeshift ruck setup. Break glass in case of Friday night game only.
Joel Selwood $665,100 MID
Despite playing less than one quarter of football in the pre-season, he is absolutely flying in 2014. Selwood loves playing in the big games and he scored 126 and 150 points in home and away matches against the Hawks last year. Given he is in just 15 per cent of SuperCoach teams, Selwood provides a good point of difference. A calculated risk.
Alex Fasolo had 106 SuperCoach points last Friday night. Picture: Wayne Ludbey. Source: News Corp Australia
CHAMPION DATA FORMGUIDE
Every week the stats gurus at Champion Data crunch the numbers to find the best buys in SuperCoach. CLICK HERE FOR THE ROUND 4 EDITION
JUMP ON
Alex Fasolo $213,600 FWD
The cheap-as-chips forwards have been the biggest disappointment of the season so far. Jay Kennedy-Harris has spent too much time in green and left us feeling blue, Jarman Impey and Gary Rohan don't get enough of the ball and Zach Merrett was dropped after Round 2. Finally we've found a bargain forward who looks the real deal, and he's a backman. After bursting on the scene as a dynamic goalkicker in 2011, Fasolo returned from a foot injury this season as a running defender. He is on the bubble this week after scores of 72 and 106 and with a breakeven of -50, he will go rise by at least $50,000. Nathan Buckley said Fasolo has work to do on his defensive craft, but they will not part with his neat ball use and speed any time soon.
David Swallow $498,900 DEF/MID
After averaging under 20 disposals in his first three season, the former No. 1 draft pick has boosted that number to almost 27 this season and looks to have arrived as an AFL footballer. Swallow's breakeven this week is 90, but against the Demons and with an average of 117, he should swallow that. With injury to Pearce Hanley and Jarrad McVeigh struggling, Swallow is a perfect sideways trade.
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Sam Lloyd $117,300 FWD
It would be best practice to wait another week before trading in Lloyd, but his performance on Friday night was so good, you can afford the risk. He scored 131 in his AFL debut and with a breakeven of -192, Lloyd will pay for himself in two weeks time. Sam Landsberger was very bullish about Lloyd's long-term prospects in today's Herald Sun and he looks to be a cash cow of the highest class.
Brad Crouch $117,300 MID
Crouch was unlucky not to make his debut in Round 1, but has looked very comfortable at AFL level in his two games. Once a ball magnet, always a ball magnet and Crouch averaged 148 points in the TAC Cup last year. He will rise by 60 points after Adelaide's game with GWS on Sunday. If you want to add a classy midfielder into your side and feel like you've missed the boat on Dunstan and Kelly, then Crouch is your man.
Others — Sam Jacobs, Matt Jaensch
Thanks? Tom Mitchell is averaging just 76 — No thanks. Picture by George Salpigtidis Source: News Limited
JUMP OFF
Tom Mitchell $424,200 MID
If you thought this hard nut would get an armchair ride in the Sydney midfield alongside Hannebery, Kennedy, McVeigh and Parker — you weren't alone. If you thought his forward/midfield tag was a no-brainer, you definitely weren't alone. The Sydney midfield is going South at the moment and it's dragged young Mitchell with it. The numbers speak for themselves, he has dropped $40,000, is averaging just 76 and his breakeven is 140. Yikes!
Gary Rohan $161,700 FWD
The classic pre-season hype player. Rohan promised the world in the pre-season and delivered an atlas. He has scored just 120 SuperCoach points in four games and averaging just 30 — in fact, he's managed to drop points. Yep, you read correctly, he is now leaking money — $14,000 to be precise. His breakeven is 60 and he is predicted to drop another $13,000 next week. It's extraordinary to learn he is still in 92,000 SuperCoach teams — the most alarming figure yet. The Swans cut both of these boys for Round 5 and so should you.
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Brodie Grundy $344,100 RUC
Grundy had it all going for him in the pre-season — new contract, first full pre-season, No. 1 ruck position. While it's hard to criticise a second year ruckman shouldering the load for a top 8 side, his SuperCoach performance has been poor. He is averaging 64.50 points and was subbed from the ground with 46 on Friday night. He has dropped almost $20,000 and has a breakeven of 109. If you have the cash, sack Grundy and draft Sam Jacobs ($476,400), who is averaging 103 with a breakeven of 56.
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Shane Savage $265,300 MID
Another who showed good signs during the pre-season and logic suggested that with greater midfield responsibility, he would flourish. However, after four games Savage is averaging just 36.25, with a score of six and has dropped $76,300. Bust.
Others — Dale Thomas, Jarrad McVeigh
INJURY ALERT
If any of these three feature in your team, then trade immediately.
Liam Shiels (3-4 weeks)
Pearce Hanley (3-4)
Matthew Luenberger (10-12)
Josh Caddy (8)
Put Ryan Griffen on your watch list. Picture: Michael Klein. Source: News Corp Australia
JENNY, DON'T BE HASTY
Sam Gray — He's played one game, relax.
Patrick Dangerfield — There is hardly a plethora of gun forwards available, so stand by him with three winnable games for the Crows ahead.
David Mundy — Not setting the world on fire, but a barometer for Fremantle and will fire when it counts.
Dom Tyson — Tyson is the third most traded player this week and with a breakeven of 52 it is hard to see why? He was tagged by Carrazzo on the weekend — scoring 50 — but hasn't put a foot wrong otherwise. There's more money to be made.
Shane Mumford — The talk of the SuperCoach world one week, in surgery the next. Mumford will miss at least one and maybe two more games with a knee injury. GWS have the bye in Round 9, so it might be worth waiting until then. Watch this space.
CRYSTAL BALL
Ryan Griffen is looming as the buy of the season as his form chart begins the journey north. His pre-season was interrupted with a back injury, forcing him to miss the first two games of the season and he is averaging just 71 points since returning. Griffen's price has dropped by $71,500 and with a breakeven of 182 this week, he will leak more money in the coming weeks. His form is starting to lift and he broke through for his first ton last weekend. Griffen will be around the $500,000 mark in two weeks time and after averaging 116 last year, an absolute steal.
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