Season stats prove Blues should win

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AS we all know, State of Origin's not played on paper. But what if it was? Would the outcome be any different?

Let's discount Queensland's obvious and legitimate advantages that give them heavy favouritism for this year's series.

They play two matches at their intimidating home fortress Suncorp Stadium and they have eight years of winning experience in the memory bank.

Put that aside, let's talk about form.

Breaking both teams down into the following categories: fullback, wing/centre, halves, props, hooker, backrow, bench, who holds the edge.

The superstar names favour Queensland, but does 2014 NRL form favour NSW? You might be surprised.

GALLERY

FULLBACK

This battle pits two of the game's genuine superstars against one another. Billy Slater has sealed his position as one of the greatest fullbacks of all-time. Jarryd Hayne is still building his legacy but his Dally M season of 2009 and his form this season has featured some of the most breathtaking football played by anyone, anytime. This season Slater's been more involved but Hayne's been more effective. Both have played all 10 games, Slater's had more possessions per game but Hayne's made more metres, more tackle busts, more tries, more try assists, more linebreak assists and the equal number of linebreaks. He's also made less errors and missed less tackles.

Who's got the edge? NSW

Jarryd Hayne has been one of the stars of the 2014 NRL season. Source: News Corp Australia

WING/CENTRE

The battle of the flanks pits Brett Morris, Josh Morris, Michael Jennings, and Daniel Tupou in the blue corner against Brent Tate, Justin Hodges, Greg Inglis and Darius Boyd in the red corner. The NSW quartet has completed 39 of 40 NRL matches so far this season, while Justin Hodges and Darius Boyd have missed six matches between them through injury bringing Queensland's total matches down to 34.

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The NSW outside backs have tallied 19 tries to Queensland's 11, with Hodges and Boyd crossing the line just once between them. Linebreaks is also tilted heavily in favour of the Blues. Where Queensland have a big advantage is in the creative department, with Inglis and Hodges in particular racking up big numbers of linebreak assists and try assists. It's a pretty close contest but in just about every area Boyd has been a passenger. You can't afford passengers in Origin.

Who's got the edge? NSW

Brett Morris has been in dazzling form for the Dragons. Source: News Corp Australia

HALVES

It doesn't matter if you play this contest on paper or on a football field, the Bulldogs pairing of Trent Hodkinson and Josh Reynolds are clearly outgunned by superstars Cooper Cronk and Johnathan Thurston. Yes, NSW's rookie pairing have had an incredible season but even though they sit in lofty positions in the Dally M vote count, they're numbers still don't compare to the Maroons stars. Thurston and Cronk have eight tries to Hodkinson and Reynolds's 4.

The Queenslanders have eight linebreaks to the Blues' six. The experienced just edge the linebreak assists column but their dominant in try assists. They also kick for more metres per game and force more drop outs. Even on paper, it's a slaughtering.

Who's got the edge? Queensland

Johnathan Thurston is a class above of the halves in the NRL. Source: News Corp Australia

PROPS

This looks to be an evenly matched contest and that's probably how it will play out on the field. But so far this NRL season, the outstanding prop by the length of the straight has been Matt Scott, so for now he wins this category for Queensland.

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While Nate Myles's stats are probably just overshadowed by James Tamou and Aaron Woods in 2014, Scott leads the way in tries (three), average possessions, average metres, tackle busts (by a big margin), and linebreaks and has made the least errors and missed tackles. Throw in Myles's massive workrate in defence and you've got a winning pairing, albeit by a fairly narrow margin.

Who's got the edge? Queensland, just

Matt Scott has led the way for the Cowboys. Source: News Corp Australia

HOOKER
Cameron Smith has been considered the pre-eminent hooker in the game for the best part of a decade but over the past two seasons, debate has quietly surfaced over whether Robbie Farah had started to put his nose in front. The Tigers skipper isn't going to win that argument too often but when it comes to the 2014 NRL season, he's comfortably got the edge.

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Putting aside the three games he missed with injury, Farah has been nothing short of outstanding. Pitted against Smith he averages more possessions per game, more runs, more average metres, more average metres per run, more tackle busts, more linebreaks, more linebreak assists, more try assists and more tackles. On paper, it's no contest.

Who's got the edge? NSW

Robbie Farah has staked his claim for world's best hooker this season. Source: News Corp Australia

BACKROW

Once again this is a pretty tight battle but the hot form of Broncos backrow pairing Corey Parker and Matt Gillett appears to give the Maroons a narrow edge. Paul Gallen's been outstanding since returning for the Sharks and he sits alongside Parker when it comes to the best individual numbers. Gillett's the next rung down, and then Hoffman, McQueen and Scott are difficult to split. On the defensive end the Queensland trio make more and miss slightly less tackles than their NSW counterparts.

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They've also scored convincingly more tries and had more linebreaks. Somewhat surprisingly, Gallen is out on his own when it comes to creating points. He's easily the stats leader in try assists and linebreak assists. The Blues have the edge in average metres but Queensland have a clear advantage when it comes to tackle busts and offloads.

Who's got the edge? Queensland

Corey Parker is in incredible form coming into Origin I. Source: News Corp Australia

BENCH

Laurie Daley and Mal Meninga have selected two benches to perform quite different tasks. While the Blues have got four forwards — two to play tight and two to play wide, Queensland have got three backrowers and a half. Daly Cherry-Evans is in the same class as Thurston and Cronk, while Anthony Watmough, Tony Williams, and Trent Merrin are three of the most in-form forwards in the NRL this season and they've got the Queensland trio of forwards comfortably covered in the stats department. Just look at running metres, which will be vital off the bench in this series: Watmough, Williams and Merrin all average over 100 metres per game, leaving Guerra, Te'o and Papalii in their wake — each are in the 70s. The Blues also easily win the tackles and offloads category and have scored more tries.

Who's got the edge? NSW

T-Rex could be the x-factor to get NSW over the line. Source: News Corp Australia

THE VERDICT

NSW 4 d Queensland 3

It's been a long time coming, but finally the Blues have something to cheer about.

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